COVID Data Indicates Surge in Cases

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Summary:

  • Boots reports a 33% increase in Covid test sales since July.
  • Just under 790,000 people in the UK estimated to have Covid symptoms.
  • Highest Covid rates in the south-west, lowest in Yorkshire.
  • Recent rise in cases compared to previous Omicron peaks.
  • 46% increase in hospital patients testing positive for Covid.
  • Waning immunity contributing to the surge in cases.
  • Booster uptake relatively low in certain age groups.

The High Street Pharmacy Boots says sales of Covid tests have risen by a third since the start of July. So is the virus back? Let's take a look at the stats.


COVID Cases on the Rise

Just under 790,000 people in the UK are estimated to have had Covid symptoms as of the 29th of July. Rates are currently highest in the south-west of England, with an estimate of between 931 and just over 1,600 daily new cases per million people. With Wales not far behind. They're lowest in Yorkshire, with somewhere between 328 and just under 1,100 new cases a day per million people.

Context and Comparison

These are huge ranges, so there is uncertainty about the actual number. But let's put that into context. This chart shows the rollercoaster of reported infections going back to November 2021. The recent uptick in cases is dwarfed by the really big peaks of Omicron in the early months of 2022. The recent rise in cases is mirrored by a 46% increase in patients testing positive when they're admitted to the hospital.

Reasons for the Surge

Waning immunity will play a large part, with less virus circulating many months since many people have had an antibody boost from infection. It's even longer since most had a dose of the vaccine.

Booster Uptake and Protection

Last autumn, everyone over 50 was urged to have a booster, but uptake was just 40% in people in the early 50s and 52% in those in their late 50s. It's only when you get to the over 75s that uptake climbed above 80%. The over 75s were also eligible for a booster in the spring of this year, with 70% taking up the offer. So their protection against serious infection is likely to be holding up, but protection in the rest of the population is falling off.

Opportunity to Spread

Covid is here to stay, and with the wet July forcing us to huddle together indoors, the virus has seized its opportunity to spread.


As the situation continues to evolve, health authorities and individuals must remain vigilant in adhering to preventive measures and vaccination campaigns to curb the spread of the virus.

Location: London, UK

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