Niger coup: West African bloc prepared for military intervention

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Summary:

  • A West African bloc of nations is considering military intervention in Niger, viewing it as a last resort.
  • Eka-Wass group has been discussing a standby military force to address the situation.
  • The situation in Niger is complex due to border disputes, active insurgencies, and regional implications.
  • Military intervention could further destabilize the region and lead to a refugee crisis.
  • The involvement of Russia's Wagner group in Niger is not imminent due to logistical challenges.


If all else fails, we are going into Niger. That was the message from a West African block of nations today. Defense chiefs from the Eka-Wass group have been meeting in the Ghanaian capital, Accra, to discuss details of a standby military force. The group's commissioner insisted that military intervention was a last resort, but voiced his frustration at efforts to engage diplomatically with Niger's new junta. They took control in a coup late last month and have held the elected president in detention since then. Joining me now from Glasgow is Dr. Olianka Ayala, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at Leeds Becket University. Thank you very much for coming on the programme.


The Prospect of Military Intervention


I mean, military intervention from Eka-Wass in Niger, they say it's a last resort. If it were actually to happen, what would the effect of it be? Thank you very much for having me. I don't think it's going to happen because it's too complicated for them. I've been following the proceedings from Accra. I'm looking at everything that's been said so far. The logistics, the humanitarian implication, as well as the consequences for the region, makes it very difficult, and that's why they're stalling on this. So it's a desperate threat, really, that they're not going to act on?

Complexities and Challenges


Well, the thing is, they have to be seen as doing something, and I think that is what Detroit is all about. Personally, I think the cornered Eka-Wass itself as an organisation put all their heads in one basket right from the beginning. So there were not so many options for them right from the beginning. So threatening the use of force right from the third or fourth day made it easier for the junta to prepare for all the eventualities. And this is the implication of what we are saying now, because they are willing to go all the way and call in the bluff of Eka-Wass.

Niger's Strategic Importance


One of the really fascinating things about Niger, which is a vast country in the heart of West Africa, is that it's become a sort of proxy theatre or stage for other conflicts. So Russia's Wagner group is active there. The French have influenced, but are losing that influence quite dramatically. The Americans are worried about it becoming a failed state. Describe that situation to us. Yeah, so it's a very complicated situation, and that is why Eka-Wass is trading with caution. Niger shares border with seven other African countries. Of these seven countries, four of them are members of Eka-Wass. Two of them are under suspension, that is Guinea and Mali.

Regional Instability and Refugee Crisis


Now, Niger is joining as well. Sorry, Burkina Faso and Mali. So it's a very complicated one now, again, because apart from the problem with the borders, there is active insurgency around the borders of Niger. If you look at towards Nigeria and Chad, around Lake Chad, you have Boko Haram, you have Islamic State's West African province. So Niger has been strategically involved in the fight against these organizations. And also, when you look at the borders with Mali and Burkina Faso as well, it's very important for them, again, because they are also involved in counterinsurgency around there. So any use of force would destabilize the region further.

Implications on Europe and Refugee Crisis


And then it would also impact on Europe, because in the last couple of years, Niger has been a fantastic partner, if I can use that word, in curbing illegal immigration towards the Sahel, through Libya, across the Mediterranean. Earlier in your news, you talked about the number of people who died today at sea. So we don't want to see another similar situation like we saw in 2015, 2016. So we need to make sure that it doesn't get to there, to that level. So it could spark another flood of refugees.

Russia's Wagner Group in Niger


What about the Wagner group, Russia's Wagner group? How active and influential are they in Niger? The Wagner group is not in the J currently. So they are in Central African Republic and they are in Mali, but they are not in the J. But they could get there, I guess. Not in the short term. Niger is a vast country, as you explained. So 500, 300 personnel would not make any difference in such a large country. We saw what happened in Mali with 4,000 French soldiers. They didn't really make a lot of difference. If Wagner is going to come into Niger, it's going to be in the medium to long term, because they will need a lot of personnel, they will need a lot of logistics, which they don't have presently in West Africa.

Conclusion


Dr. Alianca Ajalla, thank you very much indeed. Thanks a lot.


Dr. Alianca Ajalla, thank you very much indeed. Thanks a lot.

Location: London, UK

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