Ukraine War: What are the two likely strategic aims for Ukraine?

The next few days and weeks in Ukraine are likely to be a picture of confusion with different messaging about who's advancing where. Now, there are two likely strategic aims for Ukraine. Firstly, to reclaim the Donbas. The Russians said that that's what they wanted to take, so obviously the Ukrainians will want to throw the Russians out of the Donbas if they can. But the second aim is really to break the land bridge, this bridge between the Donbas and Crimea. That land bridge is really important to the Russians, but it's pretty important to the Ukrainians, because if they can drive south from Zaporizhia, the area that includes Zaporizhia nuclear power station, to Militopol on the coast, then they'll break that land bridge clean apart. And so that sort of area presents lots of challenges to the Ukrainians, but also some advantages, because the ground there is easier to work with, it's probably better ground for main battle tanks and some of the heavy armour.

But let's have a look at a particular area. Let's just have a look at one place, Tokmak, in this part of the world. There is a satellite image of Tokmak. Now, if you look very carefully, you can see, like, scratches on it. Those scratches are the trenches that the Russians have already built. But put on there the real trenches that we know the Russians have got, that we've identified. Then add to it the rivers in the area, then add to it the high ground in the area.

That's really important to any commander. You've got to seize the high ground and hold it. And if you're defending, you've got to prevent yourself losing the high ground. That's really important. And so any commander that's trying to take that area has got to think about the obstacles, the altitude, the water and where the enemy are. Now, the weather at the moment is very good for the Ukrainians. There's no rain in the forecast for the next two or three weeks.

The temperature is rising. It's 20 degrees now. It's going to go to about 25 degrees. That means the ground is drying out quickly and that's good for tanks. Tanks, 70-ton vehicles, they need dry ground to be able to spread out. And so as the Ukrainians come to meet these sorts of obstacles, let's just have a look at them in a bit more detail. Dragons' teeth, these things that are placed on the ground, anti-tank traps, things to slow the tanks down, to make it difficult for vehicles and tanks and some of the support vehicles to get across.

These dragon teeth in themselves are no great shakes. But if they're covered by fire, if the enemy has gotten zeroed in on their artillery, if they've got the infantry covering it with fire, then they can be a very expensive way of getting across the land. For an attacker, getting through dragon's teeth, getting over trenches, having to lay bridges over the water, all those things slow you down, they bunch up your forces and that presents easy targets for the defending side. And so, as each commander, one attacking, one defending, as they try to achieve their objectives, it's like a sort of multi-dimensional game of chess between both of them, making the best use of the ground, the height, the vehicles, the men, the firepower that they've got. And we'll see these complex chess games going on between commanders on both sides, everywhere around the front that the Ukrainians try to break through in this offensive.

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