Bakhmut won't fall into Russian hands 'any time soon'

So I would say in central back, 10 days ago with the times team and spoke to a lot of the soldiers fighting there and the commanders fighting there and was able to move into some areas of the center of the city. I don't think it's going to fall anytime soon. And here's why. The Russians have managed to dominate the battlefield around the city. It's a small city or large town, depending on how you look at it. In the last 48 hours, they have the Russians have captured the entire east side of the city. The city is divided north to south by a thin river.

But they've been fighting in that eastern side really since the beginning of December. So it's not like they've just swept in yesterday and grabbed it. They've just got the last few streets that they didn't already hold. They have got this kind of three quarter circle around part of the city and they can fire upon the last Ukrainian supplies road going in and out. It's not even a paid road. It's kind of muddy and zigzagging and not a great place to get wounded out of or ammunition in. However, inside Bakhmut, there are thousands of Ukrainian soldiers.

There are thousands of Ukrainian soldiers on the west side of Bakhmut. Many of them on high ground overlooking the battlefield. And the Russians will find it quite hard to close the complete encirclement of the city with the units they've got, given the shape of the ground and that there are still thousands of Ukrainians fighting on inside that city. There are also, there is a shortage of ammunition on both sides, which is going to affect how the culminating moments of that battle could come about. So I think the battle could go on yet for weeks. I don't think it's likely to be over in days. And it is still Russia's intention to take on the whole town, the whole of Bakhmut.

There's no hints that they might settle, that it's become about pride. And actually, when you take a little step back, perhaps it's not that practical to be. To be losing so many lives. Bakhmut, first of all, is that there's a few fantasies about Bakhmut. People say it's not a strategic importance. It is a strategic importance. It's a major, it sits on a major road hub.

And whoever controls Bakhmut has roads going straight into the heartland of the Ukrainian held kind of economic zone of the Donbas area out there, the cities of Kramator, the cities of Slovyans. So Bakhmut is really important on a practical, physical, topographical level. But it's also important because both sides, it becomes, for both sides, it's become such a symbolic battle in which both sides lost thousands and thousands of fighters dead and wounded. I mean, it's bled out a lot of the reserves which Ukraine had, hoping to get prepared for a spring counter offensive, have ended up actually embroiled in the Battle of Bakhmut. Ukrainian have had huge casualties there. Zelensky himself, President Zelensky, visited Bakhmut in the past and the word fortress Bakhmut, the phrase fortress Bakhmut is very prevalent amongst Ukrainian media. It's a lot of emotional attachments to the sacrifice of its troops there.

But Vrogozhin and the Wagner group, it's also, for them, it's become a very symbolic battle. They want to capture Bakhmut from the Ukrainians to show not just to Putin that presents him with a victory, but also show to the Russian generals and defence minister with whom pregosian so often quarrels. Hey, my private mercenary army, my convict's army, Wagner group have got a victory which the Russian army has not managed to achieve. So there's sort of internal rivalries going on there too. Very important battle for all sorts of reasons. And if the Wagner group are successful, they will point to the fact that they did it without enough artillery and ammunition support from Russia. Progosian's been been complaining about that.

Does he have a point? Are they being as supported by Putin as they should be? Well, the switch goes on and off. I mean, but I think it's fair to say that both sides have got really big problems with that supply of artillery shells, particularly 152 and 155 millimeter artillery shells. Progosian might have had a shortage. He made a statement two days ago suggesting that he'd been, you know, the click switch had been pressed off to his ammunition surprise. He was being shafted. Yeah, he might have been shafted, or it may be that was just a glitch in the bureaucracy. It may be the statements he made actually referred to an earlier point in the battle.

But here's the thing, whether he's short of artillery shells or not, he's still managed to, or the Russians still managed to outgun the Ukrainians by a ratio of seven to one. That's seven Russian artillery shells fired for every one they received back from the Ukrainians. So both sides was a meeting in Stockholm today amongst EU officials to find sought out, organizing a million artillery shells for Ukraine, such as the Ukrainian shortage at the moment. So the supply of shells in this really high intensity warfare, traditional warfare dominated by artillery is the subject of great concern for both sides. Finally, we know that German prosecutors have confirmed today that investigators are searching a boat that may have been used in last year's Nord Stream gas pipeline bombings. The allegation is that a pro-Ukrainian group was responsible. Where do you think this particular situation might go? There's been denials from all sides, really, but it still remains a mystery, doesn't it? Absolutely intriguing mystery.

But here's the thing, whoever did that job, it's a really complex job. You've got to know you've got to get the team together. High specialized team, either of divers working great depths around oil pipes or electricity cables or whatever, or special forces operatives. You've got to get the team together. You've got to get the explosives, the bomb making gear in the together, which is not that easy. If it's being done, you know, clandestinely, you've got to get the not just the boat, but you've got to work out how not to get observed. It's so intensive surveillance over that stretch to see the whole time.

Now, that will be a difficult enough job for special forces belonging to a state. That would take a long time to get that team together and put that operation in. The thing that it might have been a group of kind of mercenary special forces put together by an individual. So soon after the war of the gun, because it happened very quickly after the war of the gun, kind of tests the bounds of credibility. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it would have been a difficult enough job for a state to pull off with highly trained special forces, let alone a rogue, oligarch or investor trying to pull together a mercenary change. And if you enjoyed that, you can listen to me, Kate Borsay, every evening, Monday to Thursday, eight until 10 on the Evening Edition on Times Radio.

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